Proof of concept · Real data — Education Department enrollment · State birth records · Census Building Permits Survey
Family formation shows up before the permits do.
Lead Signal turns kindergarten enrollment into a forward-looking demand curve for residential builders. Every projected cohort through 2031 is anchored in births that have already happened — the only modeled assumption is the district's capture ratio.
POWERED BY K12ENROLL™ PREDICTIVE ENROLLMENT ANALYTICS
Backtested 2011–2026: county projections within ~2% (1-yr) and ~5% (5-yr horizon), ex-COVID
Forward curve — births already recorded × capture ratio
Supply — permit units (indexed, annual data ends 2024)
Naive supply continuation
What supply-side tools show
Land status, current inventory, closings
Existing platforms track what's already been permitted, platted, and sold — a real-time picture of the pipeline that already exists. Their data ends at today.
What Lead Signal adds
Where family demand is forming next
Kindergarten enrollment is a settlement event — the family has already bought or leased. And because every kindergartner of 2031 was born by 2026, the forward cohort is a count, not a guess.
Why the district level matters
The county aggregate can lie to you
A county reading "cooling" can still contain districts accelerating faster than any market on the board. That divergence is invisible in a county rollup — and it's where land is still cheap.